If Obama and Trump went head-to-head in the 2028 election, here’s who would win

It may sound like something straight out of political fan fiction — Donald Trump and Barack Obama facing off in a presidential election. But according to a new poll, Americans already have opinions on who they’d choose if the two ever went head-to-head on a 2028 ballot.

Of course, such a matchup is impossible under the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two terms. Still, that hasn’t stopped speculation, especially with Trump occasionally hinting at a third run and Obama remaining characteristically silent.

Back in April, Trump was asked how he’d feel about running against Obama in 2028. His response: “I’d love that. That would be a good one.” Pressed further, he added, “Some people are asking me to run… They say there’s a way you can do it, but I don’t know about that. We have four years—it’s still close to four years.”

While purely hypothetical, a new Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll asked 1,013 registered voters how they would vote in a Trump–Obama showdown. The results: 52% for Obama and 41% for Trump. Among Hispanic voters, 73% favored Obama; 68% of Black voters did too. Obama was the only Democrat in the survey to beat Trump—Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris both trailed him.

Realistically, a Trump–Obama race could never happen without rewriting the Constitution, a process requiring two-thirds of Congress and 38 state legislatures. But the poll underscores the enduring influence of both men, who have defined American politics for nearly two decades. And as Trump once joked, “I’m not joking… there are methods.”

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