Democrats are struggling to pin blame for the current three-week government shutdown on Republicans, and their efforts are backfiring. The so-called “Schumer Shutdown” has highlighted cracks in their messaging, as internal polling leaks suggest voters are nearly evenly split on who is responsible. According to the data, 45% blame Republicans and 42% blame Democrats — a statistical tie well within the margin of error. Worse, the trend is moving against Democrats, with the share of voters blaming them creeping upward over the past three weeks.

Despite attempts to frame the narrative, many Americans see shutdowns as political theater rather than a pressing issue. For most, daily life continues uninterrupted, and assigning blame is background noise. Polling in these situations largely reflects the opinions of hyper-partisan observers and media insiders, not the broader electorate. Even President Trump’s personal approval rating has ticked up slightly during the shutdown, baffling some analysts.

Democrats gambled on using the shutdown to energize their base by targeting Trump and Republicans, hoping to bolster their image heading into the midterms. The strategy has failed, with their generic-ballot lead shrinking from roughly 3.6 points over the summer to under two points. Considering they need a D+5 margin to retain control of the House, this misstep could have serious consequences.

The shutdown, intended as a show of strength, has instead exposed Democratic vulnerabilities. As the impasse continues, the political fallout grows, leaving the party struggling to regain control of the narrative and riskier midterm prospects.